Fog City Guide

This link is to my monthly column in the local paper.

http://www.westsideobserver.com/columns/realEstate.html#mar10

Enjoy.

Here is an article I wrote for the local paper on the San Francisco Police Department reforms.

http://www.westsideobserver.com/news/jedLane.html#mar10

Google changed code in thier claendering application and didn’t inform the writers of the apps for the Droid OS. So the upshot is we’ve lost ALL of our calendered appointments. If you haven’t synced since the 2nd of March 2010 then be sure to turn off the sync function, back up your data and check with your app supplier.
Unfortuantely I synced, lost data on my droid, my outlook and it’s gone on the Google site. ALL GONE!

Google please communicate better with your peeps.

Yesterday, January 29th, 2010 I attended the press conference held at the Hall of Justice where the Chief and the Mayor laid out thier plans for reductions in violent crime in the City over the next year.

I attended to listen for the mandates that would be required of San Francisco Safety Awareness for Everyone (SF SAFE) which I am currently the VP of the Board of Directors.

The community outreach component of the PD under Chief Gascon is entral to the mission and SAFE is poised to hel deliver on many of the initiatives. SAFE has worked for over 30 years in the community building relationshipsbetween the PD and the members of the PD. It will continue its work as the 10 district stations create thier own Citizen Advisory Boards that meet monthly and as the Chief builds his own stratigic citizen advisory board that will meet quarterly.

The Chief and the major are committed to the modern philosophy of Community Policing. The best article I’ve read is from the Department of Justice http://www.cops.usdoj.gov/files/RIC/Publications/e030917193-CP-Defined.pdf

The community needs your support. Read about the changes and get behind it so that we can make sure it succeeds.

 As a new decade starts the real estate market in San Francisco continues to show signs of strengthening. Open escrows are up 39% over January 1^st of last year. Sales in December were up 31% over December 2008 and the median price of single family homes and condos is up 7% from the median in December 2008.

That’s all good, right? But looking at the median price by district there is a steep decline in price. (Remember these are the Association of Realtors districts not the Supervisorial districts. To view click SF Realtor District Map). While many things affect pricing and watching median pricing only serves to show trends, District 5 including Noe Valley and Glen Park had been white hot. Now the number of remodeled homes that were speculative has decreased. Contractors are holding off because money isn’t available for construction loans.

The median price represents the dollar value that is in the middle of all the homes sold during a period. Looking back at the distribution of prices it’s clear that the more expensive homes sales are declining in sales while the quantity of lower price homes increases. In 2004 the sales volume peaked and in 2007 the median price peaked in the San Francisco market.  Is every property worth less now than it was or is the median skewed by the sale of more less expensive homes? I say it is not.

If you sell in this market you need to be prepared for this market. Making the property show well and positioning the price to be attractive are so important now, even more so than when every house would generate multiple offers. To get to the highest possible price the market will bear the seller needs to be strategic and the agent needs to be a very good negotiator.

So what was the median price and size in your neighborhood for December? The following chart shows the price, size and how long it took to sell the median home in your district. This was popular when I used it last month. I got comments from readers that it was handy to be able to compare your house with the one listed here as the median.

 If you are thinking about selling in the coming year all indicators say go ahead. There are buyers and the Federal tax credits are motivating people in greater and greater numbers. The activity is up as the open escrows show. In October and November there were over a thousand properties in escrow on the first day the month. That was in anticipation of the ending of the first-time buyer’s credit. Now that the credit has been extended and expanded San Francisco has over 300 more transactions in escrow this January 1^st compared to last year’s January number.

Prices are rising, inventory is tight and buyers are buying. It isn’t 2004 as far as the sales numbers go and since money is tighter it isn’t 2007 where higher end homes were sold but interest rates are really low and the market is very active.  

By the way there are some great deals outside the City too. I’ve helped clients get condos under $300,000, some under $200,000, great homes in nice established areas for fantastic prices all around the Bay Area. Second homes or investment properties a solid buys. With the additional tax credit, it might be time to move to the sunshine and transfer the tax basis from your long held City home.

This is where the median price for both single family homes and condos were every year of the past decade.

November’s numbers are just in. While the SF Chronicle is reporting the pending sales rise of October here you have the November 2009 San Francisco Market Watch News and Anlysis

November sales were down 13% from October when our market had shown an 8% increase. The number of available properties also declined from 1725 to 1477 which is a decline of 17% thus keeping the absorption rate for single family homes at 2 ¾ months and condos are at 4 months.

The volume of sales will continue to decline as shown by the number of transactions that are in escrow as of the first of the month. The pending sales volume is down from October by 4%.

While the unit sales numbers are down from the previous month, they are far better than November 2008, in fact they are up by 39% and for the year sales volume will be up by 24% over 2008.

 Historically the volume of sales for single family homes held consistently above the 2500 units per year till we entered 2007.  Condominiums have risen obviously due to the increase in construction of the condos in our market. 

The next chart shows the market volume on a monthly basis. The volatility of 2007, with it’s general declines carried through all of 2008 which showed some seasonal spiking yet ended with an even lower volume than 2007.  Moving through 2009 we see the seasonal trend but we also see a little strength holding towards the end.

This is likely an indicator of the Federal Tax credit for first-time buyers that were set to end October 31, 2009. That impetus probably explains the continued activity more than consumer confidence or increased access to funds would.  The tax credit was eventually extended and expanded on November 9th.  The extension continues the $8,000 dollar tax credit for first time buyers and adds a $6,500 tax credit for “repeat homebuyers”. These tax credits work in similar ways. The credit is 10% of the purchase price up to the maximum of $8,000 and $6,500 respectively. The first time buyer is a buyer that has not owned a home in the 3 years prior to the purchase. A repeat buyer is anyone who has lived in a primary residence for 5 consecutive years out of the past 8 years. The Repeat Buyer Credit will allow families that want to move up into larger homes and empty nesters that want to move into smaller homes an opportunity to take advantage of the credit. Additional information can be found at the Federal Housing Tax Credit web site.

In looking at the volume of sales and comparing that to the drop in both sales and median price I decided to look at the changes in the market by comparing the volume of sales in price categories.  

The number that jumps out is the increase in the percentage of the under $500,000 sales from 2007 and the decline in percentages of the one to two million category. This shift shows clearly why the median price has dropped from the high range to the lower ranges of the $500,000 to $1,000,000 category.

The November median price for the City stayed relatively the same for condos and rose a bit for single family from October. Combined the number rose by 0.5% from November 2008.

So what was the median where you live? The following graph shows the median sale price for the month of November 2009 by SFAR district. If you perchance don’t know what district you live in here is a map.

For further information on the market or my analysis feel free to contact me.

The San Francisco real estate market is dancing with the market forces. The median price for a single family home in Spetember was $760,000 and the condo price is $675,000. Combined the median number stayed flat from the previous month.
The inventory of active listing at the first of the month increased by 10% over September 1 but is down 8% from the same month last year.
The absorbtion rate for single family stands at 3.4 months and condos are at 4.7 months. Sales in September were 3.75% higher than August and 16.3% higher than the same month in 2008.
 

This graph show the median and the average price for residential properties in the San Francisco City and County from 1993 to 2008. Below that is a graph of the median prices each month of 2009.

I’m not going to draw conclusions but let the numbers speak for themselves. The median price is where it was in 2004 City wide. The neighborhoods are all different. For example Miraloma Park is only down 6% from the peak in July 2007 and the Sunset is down 10% from 2007.

I track the numbers in my real estate market, San Francisco each month. I now have a few years of data and can do fun analysis on data and trends. I post this monthly on my Trulia blog  http://www.trulia.com/blog/jed_lane_broker_gri/ 

In July the number of sold units in the real estate market is up over the month previous in both single-family homes (SFH) and condominiums. SFH are up 10.6% and condos 12%. When looking at the same month one year ago the condos sales are down 30% and SFH are down only 1%. Here is a graph of the combined catogories showing units sold month by month.

The above reflects the steady rise of units in escrow that has been happening in San Francisco since the first of the year, but as of August 1, 2009 the number of open escrows has turned down. Single family is down 11% and open escrows for condos are down 15%. The number of open escrows should predict the number of units sold. Therefore the market should see a decline in sales transactions in August.

Although the rate of inventory absorption in both categories is still falling that number reflects the higher sales number of closed units. Even with the lower number of open escrows looking at the steady number of available properties on the market, 548 SFH and 940 condos, we are in a strong sellers market for SFH with the inventory sitting at a 2.65 month supply. Condos are riding the edge of a balanced to buyer’s market with inventory at a 5.14 month supply.

Pricing, what is going on with pricing? The median price, we need to remember is a function of where are the majority of sales. That said the past month broke the upward trend line that has been going on in the city since March. Single-family homes fell from $785,000 to $780,000, little more than ½ of 1%. Condo’s showed a deeper shift from $676,000 to $601,000, more than 12%. Taken together the median price in San Francisco is $702,000 for the month of July 2009. That is a decline of just about 5% from the previous month and a 16% drop from the same month in 2008. Here is a graph that shows the median price of the combined property types over the past year.

So what does it look like in my area of the City? Here is a table that shows what the median price, days on market and the size are in each of the ten districts of San Francisco. If you aren’t sure which district you live in check this map http://www.sfrealtors.com/sfarmls/sfinfo.html

If you have questions or comments feel free to contat me.

San Francisco’s Real Estate Market Watch

August 1, 2009

From the Fog City Guide

By Jed Lane

In July the number of sold units in the real estate market is up over the month previous in both single-family homes (SFH) and condominiums. SFH are up 10.6% and condos 12%. When looking at the same month one year ago the condos sales are down 30% and SFH are down only 1%. Here is a graph of the combined catogories showing units sold month by month.

The above reflects the steady rise of units in escrow that has been happening in San Francisco since the first of the year, but as of August 1, 2009 the number of open escrows has turned down. Single family is down 11% and open escrows for condos are down 15%. The number of open escrows should predict the number of units sold. Therefore the market should see a decline in sales transactions in August.

Although the rate of inventory absorption in both categories is still falling that number reflects the higher sales number of closed units. Even with the lower number of open escrows looking at the steady number of available properties on the market, 548 SFH and 940 condos, we are in a strong sellers market for SFH with the inventory sitting at a 2.65 month supply. Condos are riding the edge of a balanced to buyer’s market with inventory at a 5.14 month supply.

Pricing, what is going on with pricing? The median price, we need to remember is a function of where are the majority of sales. That said the past month broke the upward trend line that has been going on in the city since March. Single-family homes fell from $785,000 to $780,000, little more than ½ of 1%. Condo’s showed a deeper shift from $676,000 to $601,000, more than 12%. Taken together the median price in San Francisco is $702,000 for the month of July 2009. That is a decline of just about 5% from the previous month and a 16% drop from the same month in 2008.

So what does it look like in my area of the City? Here is a table that shows what the median price, days on market and the median size in each of the ten districts of San Francisco. If you aren’t sure which district you live in check this map http://www.sfrealtors.com/sfarmls/sfinfo.html